1. The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.
"Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.
1false analogy: The food industry is not analogous to the color film industry.
2causal oversimplification: Other factors that may contribute t to the cost decline of the printing cost should be considered and ruled out.
3gratuitous assumption: The conclusion of the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the company can minimize cost and maximize profit because the company has been conducted for 25 years.
2. The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the Apogee Company.
"When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore, the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintain better supervision of all employees."
1causal oversimplification: It is imprudent to conclude that the establishment of the field offices is the only reason explaining the decline of the profit.
2all things are equal: The success of the centralization of the past does not guarantee the applicability in the future.
3either-or-or choice: The author assumes that the centralization and the establishment of field offices are mutually exclusive alternatives, there is no middle ground between they two. In fact, we can have the field offices under centralized control.
3. The following appeared in a memorandum issued by a large city's council on the arts.
"In a recent citywide poll, fifteen percent more residents said that they watch television programs about the visual arts than was the case in a poll conducted five years ago. During these past five years, the number of people visiting our city's art museums has increased by a similar percentage. Since the corporate funding that supports public television, where most of the visual arts programs appear, is now being threatened with severe cuts, we can expect that attendance at our city's art museums will also start to decrease. Thus some of the city's funds for supporting the arts should be reallocated to public television."
1The survey is doubtful: until detailed information has been given.
2causal oversimplification: It is groundless to say the attendance of the art museums increased because people watched more visual art programs during the past five years only because the latter occurred coincidently with the former.
3all things are equal
4gratuitous assumption: The author's argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the fund of the visual should not be reduced because the attendance of the art museums will decline.
4. The following appeared in a report presented for discussion at a meeting of the directors of a company that manufactures parts for heavy machinery.
"The falling revenues that the company is experiencing coincide with delays in manufacturing. These delays, in turn, are due in large part to poor planning in purchasing metals. Consider further that the manager of the department that handles purchasing of raw materials has an excellent background in general business, psychology, and sociology, but knows little about the properties of metals. The company should, therefore, move the purchasing manager to the sales department and bring in a scientist from the research division to be manager of the purchasing department."
1causal oversimplification: Coincidence does not necessarily indicate causal relationship.
2gratuitous assumption: No evidence is supplied to support that the planning is poor and should be responsible for the delay in manufacturing.
3The author proposes that the manager should be appointed to the sale department because his knowledge is more suitable for that department. But there is no evidence can show that the knowledge of general business, psychology an sociology is not useless in the department of the purchasing of raw materials.
5. The following appeared in an announcement issued by the publisher of The Mercury, a weekly newspaper.
"Since a competing lower-priced newspaper, The Bugle, was started five years ago, The Mercury's circulation has declined by 10,000 readers. The best way to get more people to read The Mercury is to reduce its price below that of The Bugle, at least until circulation increases to former levels. The increased circulation of The Mercury will attract more businesses to buy advertising space in the paper."
1false analogy
2alll tings are equal
3gratuitous assumption: On evidence can support that the best way to get more readers is to reduce the price. Other factors should be considered.
4The circulation is not the ultimate goal of the newspaper. The benefit-cost analysis should be given.
6. The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.
"Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios's unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region's manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies."
1作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。
2作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。
7. The following appeared in the health section of a magazine on trends and lifestyles.
"People who use the artificial sweetener aspartame are better off consuming sugar, since aspartame can actually contribute to weight gain rather than weight loss. For example, high levels of aspartame have been shown to trigger a craving for food by depleting the brain of a chemical that registers satiety, or the sense of being full. Furthermore, studies suggest that sugars, if consumed after at least 45 minutes of continuous exercise, actually enhance the body's ability to burn fat. Consequently, those who drink aspartame-sweetened juices after exercise will also lose this calorie-burning benefit. Thus it appears that people consuming aspartame rather than sugar are unlikely to achieve their dietary goals."
1Insufficient sample: The result of the intake of high level aspartame is not representative of all level intake of aspartame.
2causal oversimplification: It is imprudent to say that the consumption of sugar causes the body to burn fat at a higher speed only because the former occurs in front of the latter.
3gratuitous assumption: The author asserts that people who drink aspartame sweetened juices after exercise will lose the calorie burning benefit without providing any evidence.
8. The following appeared in the editorial section of a corporate newsletter.
"The common notion that workers are generally apathetic about management issues is false, or at least outdated: a recently published survey indicates that 79 percent of the nearly 1,200 workers who responded to survey questionnaires expressed a high level of interest in the topics of corporate restructuring and redesign of benefits programs."
1survey is doubtful: Detailed information should be given such as the absolute number of workers of that corporation.
2insufficient sample: The corporation is not representative of all the other corporations.
3gratuitous assumption: It is natural that workers are interested in the topics such as corporate structuring and design of benefits programs. This trend can not be cited to support what the author's alleges.
9. The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.
"On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer."
1The absolute value of consumption should be given by the author.
2all things are equal
3Whether the increase of profit gained by attracting more middle-aged consumers will be offset
by the reduction of profit because of the loss of young consumers.
10. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
"This past winter, 200 students from Waymarsh State College traveled to the state capitol building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs. The other 12,000 Waymarsh students evidently weren't so concerned about their education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Since the group who did not protest is far more numerous, it is more representative of the state's college students than are the protesters. Therefore the state legislature need not heed the appeals of the protesting students."
1代表学生的形成方式不知道。如果是随机产生的，那么去反对的学生完全可以代表学生总体。
2没去的学生不一定不关心。他们可能有更重要的事情要忙。例如要赶回家过圣诞节。有已经订好的寒假计划等等。
3此外，没去的学生之所以没有去很可能是因为他们觉得那些代表足可以代表他们表达心声。
legislation legislature legislator legitimate illegitimate the state capitol proposed cut
program issue flaw representative unrepresentative represent colleague presumptuous 专横的
one obvious rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that rejoinder反驳
One obvious rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that the students who did not participate did so with the knowledge that their concern would be expressed by the protesting students.
as it stands logically acceptable demonstrate characteristic biase nullify使无效
11 The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
"In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro."
经济衰退可能是全洲或全国性的或是由于上任市长的过失造成的以及一些其他原因，失业率和人口增长率并不是衡量市长政绩的唯一指标。
recommendation endorse resident current incumbent cumbersome whereas oversimplification oversimplify the recommendation endorsed in the recommendation endorsed in this argument is that the residents of San Perdito vote current mayor out of office, and re-elect former mayor. administration administrator administrate the line of reasoning
It is fallacious reasoning unless other possible casual explanations have been considered and ruled out. recession depression downturn低迷时期 is part of a picture of ... mayor
set the stage for Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro's own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population .
availability emotionally intentionally specific specifically anger angry citizen thereby bypass
cast one's vote for sb. eliminate abolish casual emotional appeal
12. The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell advertising space in the Daily Gazette to grocery stores in the Marston area.
"Advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Daily Gazette will help you increase your sales. Consider the results of a study conducted last month. Thirty sale items from a store in downtown Marston were advertised in the Gazette for four days. Each time one or more of the 30 items was purchased, clerks asked whether the shopper had read the ad. Two -thirds of the 200 shoppers asked answered in the affirmative. Furthermore, more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over $100 at the store."
在把Gazette日报的广告版向Marston地区的蔬菜商销售的计划：
在Gazette日报宣传特价菜会帮助你提高销售额。考虑上月的一个研究的结果。Marston中心区的一个商店的30种特价菜在Gazette做了4天广告。每当有特价菜被卖出，职员就问顾客是否读过广告。200顾客中的2/3回答是肯定的。而且，持肯定回答的顾客中有超过一半的人在店里的消费超过100美元。
读了广告之后买了特价菜，并不意味着是因为看了广告才去买特价菜。可以有很多因素促使消费者买特价菜。此外作者是想说可以提高总体销售水平但他的论证实际根本没有涉及这一点。起码要给出没有做广告时候一天销售额和做了广告之后的对比。
13. The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell advertising time on a local radio station to local businesses.
"The Cumquat Cafe began advertising on our local radio station this year and was delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last year's totals. Their success shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitable."
将本地电台的广告时间卖给本地企业的计划：
Cumquat咖啡店今年开始在我们电台做广告，并很高兴的看到它的业务比去年全年增长10%。他们的成功向您展示了您如何能够利用电台广告使您的企业获利更多。
做广告并不是利润增加唯一可能的原因。就算可以为咖啡店增加利润这并不适应与其他行业。
claim profitable evidence cite unconvincing questionable assumption conclusion contribute chef coupon update menu competitor eliminate assume likewise cafe audience benefit imprudent prudent
even if it is granted
Even if it is granted that radio advertising is responsible for the success, another assumption must be made before we can conclude that radio advertising will result in increased profits for business in general.
14. The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial.
"Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year's graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum."
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
报纸社论：
两年前Nova高中开始在3个科学科目中使用互动计算机指导。学校的退学率立刻下降，而且去年的毕业生在大学取得了一些很不错的成绩。在未来的预算中，校董事会应该在能得到的资金中拨出更大的一块用来购买更多的计算机。而且这一区的所有学校都应该在课程中采用互动计算机指导。
1去年毕业的学生是否接受了这三个科目的教育2退学率下降可能有很多原因3适合与这所学校并不意味着适应这一区的所有学校4该学校是否有足够的预算增大开支
interactive interact instruction logical logically covincing ignore decline atttibute
dropout中途退学(学生)usage sufficient fund budget compromise comprise impressive portion proportional ultimately ultimate strengthen graduate graduation applicable apply applicant application affordable afford district
15. The following appeared as a part of an advertisement for Adams, who is seeking reelection as governor.
"Reelect Adams, and you will be voting for proven leadership in improving the state's economy. Over the past year alone, seventy percent of the state's workers have had increases in their wages, five thousand new jobs have been created, and six corporations have located their headquarters here. Most of the respondents in a recent poll said they believed that the economy is likely to continue to improve if Adams is reelected. Adams's opponent, Zebulon, would lead our state in the wrong direction, because Zebulon disagrees with many of Adams's economic policies."
正在寻求重新选举为地方长官的Adams的广告宣传：
再次选举Adams，你将为在提升本州经济的过程中已被证实了的领导能力投票。仅在过去的一年中，全州有70%的工人的工资增加了，5000个新就业机会被创造，6个公司将他们的总部设在这里。最近的调查中多数回答者说他们相信如果Adams当选经济将会继续增长。Adams的竞争者Zebulon将把我们州引向错误的方向，因为Zebulon不同意Adams的多数经济政策
1数据vague，物价水平和工资哪个长的更快?5000个就业机会和总体失业水平相比是不是微不足道?六个公司总部设在这里，有没有离开的?调查是由谁进行的，接受调查的又是谁，可信度怎么样?
2就算经济确实增长了也不一定是ADAMS的功劳
3以上两点没有说明，也就无法因为ZEBULON的经济观点与之相左而判定他上任就会使经济下滑。
recomend reelecting governor statistic create corporation indicate respondent economy rival rivalry vague oversimplified unwarranted
