新
The following appeared in an article in a travel magazine.
“After the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their on-time rates, Speedee Airlines achieved the number one on-time rate, with over 89 percent of its flights arriving on time each month. And now Speedee is offering more flights to more destinations than ever before. Clearly, Speedee is the best choice for today’s business traveler.”
旅游杂志的文章：
航空工业开始要求航空公司报告他们的准时率以后，Speedee航空公司达到准时率最高，每月他的航次有超过89%都准时到达。现在，Speedee提供了更多的航次到更多的地方。显然，Speedee是今天的商务旅行者最好的选择。
1. 提供了更多航次，准时率可能下降。
2. 准时不是最好选择的唯一标准。服务，价格也很重要。
3. 没有说到底几个月。如果报告只有两个月，不足以说明问题。其他公司的准时率说不定正在稳步上升
4. 由于是航空公司自己报告，数据可能被扭曲: We can image that the main purpose of airline industry to require on-times rates report is to identify and award the best companies, it is easy to suppose that the Speedee Airlines, which can benefit from its report, give unfair and inaccurate date.
A travel magazine article claims that Speedee Airlines is the best choice for today’s business traveler. To support this claim, the author points out that Speedee has ranked first in terms of on-time arrival rate since the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their on-time rates. The claim is also based on the assertion that “Speedee new offers more flights to more destination than ever before.” This argument suffers from several critical flaws.
First of all, the claim relies on a couple of unwarranted assumptions. One assumption is that on-time rates, number of flights, and destination choices are the only features of airlines service that determine how a particular airline would rank overall for a business traveler. However, the author of this article ignores other factors such as fare prices and discounts, safety record, baggage-handing, and in-flight amenities. Another assumption is that Speedee’s overall on-time record affects business and no-business travelers equally. However, this is not necessarily the case. Speedee may have a poorer record for commuter flights, which are popular among business travelers, than for other flights. If so, the conclusion that Speedee is the best choice for the business traveler would be seriously undermined.
Secondly, the author’s claim that “Speedee now offers more flights to more destinations than ever before” is too vague to be meaningful. We are not informed how many flights or how many destinations were previously offered or how many are offered now. Moreover, the article makes no comparison with other airlines regarding these features. Without these comparisons, the claim is worthless as a reason for choosing Speedee over another airline.
Thirdly, the article fails to indicate how long ago the industry began requiring airlines to report on-time rates. If the requirement was imposed recently, then the brief reporting period may be insufficient to show that the airlines’ relative on-time performance will continue in the future. Moreover, the article fails to provide evidence that all airlines, regardless of on-time record, actually reported, or that the reports are accurate.
In conclusion, the article’s claim that Speedee is the best choice for the business traveler is unsubstantiated and may be too hasty. To better evaluate the article’s claim, we need more information about Speedee;s other features that contribute to its overall appeal, about its on-time record for commuter flights specifically, and about the integrity and length of the reporting upon which the ranking was based.
68. The following appeared in a memorandum to the planning department of an investment firm.
“Costs have begun dropping for several types of equipment currently used to convert solar energy into electricity. Moreover, some exciting new technologies for converting solar energy are now being researched and developed. Hence we can expect that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than coal or oil as a source of electrical power. We should, therefore, encourage investment in Solario, a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. After all, Solario’s chief executive was once on the financial planning team for Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation.”
投资公司计划部的备忘录：
将太阳能转化为电能的几种设备的成本最近降低了。而且，一些令人兴奋的转化太阳能的新技术正在研究和开发中。因此我们可以预期作为发电原料的太阳能将变得比媒和石油更便宜更吸引人。我们应该鼓励给新的太阳能动力产品制造商Solario投资。毕竟Solario的CEO曾是Ready-to-Ware(一家在其新近成立后表现出众的软件工程公司)的财务计划团队中的一员。
1. The decrease of the cost of several types of equipment does not necessarily guarantee the reduction of the overall cost of the convertion of solar energy into electicity.
2. It is still too early to say that the technologies for converting the solar energy that are being researched and developed will certainly make the solar energy cost efficient and attractive.
3. Even if the cost reduction of the solar energy is immediately accessible, it is still imprudent to say the solar energy is more attractive compared with the coal and oil as a source of electrical power.
4. The former performance of the CEO does not guarantee the future success of the Solario. From the autor's assertion, the CEO's ability to manage this solar energy company is, in fact, somewhat dubious, because he or she once was on the financial planning team for Ready-to-ware, which is in the industry completely different from the Solario.
1， 除了价钱之外很可能有别的因素让人更喜欢石油。
2， 不知道cost下降后是否仍然比石油等的价钱高。而且研究也未必能成功.
3， 财务顾问不一定能做好CEO。
In this argument the planning department of investment firm reaches the conclusion that the firm should encourage investment in Solario—a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. The basis for this recommendation is the expectation that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than other forms of energy. This expectation is based on recent declines in the cost of equipment used to convert solar energy into electricity and on new technologies that are being developed for this purpose. An additional reason give in support of this recommendation is that Solario’s chief executive was a member of the financial planning team for a company that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation. While this argument has some merit, there are a few assumptions that deserve attention.
In the first place, the author assumes that the previous business experience of Solario’s chief executive will be an asset in the development of the new company. While this may be the case, the fact that the two companies deal in vastly different products is cause for some concern. The executive’s expertise in the software-engineering business will not necessarily be applicable to the solar-powered products business.
In the second place, the author assumes that the major impediment to the use of solar-powered products is the cost of solar energy and that, given a choice, consumers would prefer products powered by solar energy over those powered by energy derived from coal or oil. On the face of it, this assumption seems acceptable; but it may be that there are other factors besides cost that make solar energy less desirable than other forms of energy.
In conclusion, this argument is convincing. To strengthen the argument additional evidence indicating consumer preference for solar-powered products over products powered by conventional forms of energy would be desirable.
