The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.
“Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.”
Capital Idea投资公司的商业计划：
在ParkHill区的Thespian剧院，Pizzazz比萨，Niblick高尔夫俱乐部在过去2年都有业务增长。因此Capital Idea应该投资Poxy剧场，Slic-o比萨和Divot高尔夫俱乐部这3家新的Irongate区的企业。为使他们达到条件，我们应该要求他们参加特殊的项目：任何顾客在其中两家消费将在第三家得到折扣。通过刺激顾客在所有3家店消费，我们将增进每一家的利润，从而使我们的回报最大化。
1， The author commits a fallcy of false analogy.
2， Therefore the proposal of investment in the Irongate district is groundless. No investment should be made until other factors have been considered and the benefit-cost analysis has been made.
3， The programme suggested by the author is reckless or even ridiculous. The possible result can be the opposite of the author's imagination because the consumers have interest of only one or two of the three stores.
1， The business increases occured in the past two years. No one can guarantee the future profit.
2， The three new companies are not necessarily analogous to those profitable ones.
3， The condition that is required is absurd. There is no causal relatioship between the condition and the collective profit.
